传苹果有意将A5订单交给台积电,三星失意
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“关于苹果公司决定将其A5处理器的订单从三星转向台积电的传言越传越烈。”HSBC的分析师Steven Pelayo在一份新的报告中表示,“虽然未经证实,但是,鉴于台积电的生产能力、技术优势,以及它与苹果之间不存在潜在的利益冲突,我们相信这个合作将会是必然的。”
如果这次台积电确实能够获得来自苹果公司的业务,“结果显示,本次业务将为台积电的收入带来2011年至少1%的增长,以及2012年至少2%的增长”他说。
“在之前的报告中,我们注意到台积电很少有获得‘第一轮’平板大战中苹果代工的机会,因为那几乎都由三星独揽。我们始终期待在‘第二轮’平板大战中,台积电能通过非iPad平板产品获得更多的利益,但是现在看来,台积电有可能会狠狠‘咬苹果一口’”Steven补充。
在这份报告中,HSBC试图量化台积电拿下A5处理器订单的收入增量。
“我们假设采用40/45nm的双核的A5处理器的尺寸为60mm2,估计一个300mm晶圆片上大约可容纳1,035个单元。假设在2011和2012年分别是85%和90%的产率(以成熟的工艺节点),我们预计2011和2012年分别消耗880和932片晶圆。”
“我们估计苹果今年iPhone/iPad的出货量为1.3亿,其中将有9,000万台产品会采用A5处理器。我们期待A5能尽快入驻iPhone,所以我们预测,到2012年A5的出货量将有机会成长150%,达到2.3亿的规模。”
“假设今年台积电获得苹果30%的订单(三星将保有70%),平均晶圆单价为4,000美元,那么台积电2011年的收入与之前的预估值增长仅为0.8%。假设到2012年台积电获得60%的A5订单,平均晶圆单价降至3,000美元,那么来自苹果订单的贡献将增长到2.5%。”
翻译/编辑:Ana Hu
本文授权编译自EE Times,版权所有,谢绝转载
点击查看原文:Analyst: TSMC to take 'bite of apple'
Analyst: TSMC to take 'bite of apple'
Mark LaPedus
Silicon foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) is taking a bigger bite of the apple, according to an analyst.
Rumblings about Apple's decision to shift A5 processor orders to TSMC from Samsung have gathered steam, said Steven Pelayo, an analyst with HSBC, in a new report. While unconfirmed, we believe cooperation is inevitable considering TSMC's capacity and technological advantages, as well as a lack of potential interest conflicts.
If TSMC did indeed receive the business from Apple, the results show minimal incremental revenue contribution (for TSMC) of approximately 1 percent (and) 2.5 percent of 2011 (and) 2012 consensus numbers, respectively, he said.
In prior reports, we noted TSMC was less exposed to 'Round 1' of the tablet wars as Samsung captured much of Apple's silicon opportunity. We always expected TSMC to benefit more in 'Round 2' with non-iPad products, but now it appears the company is potentially poised to take a 'bigger bite of the apple,' he said.
In the report, HSBC attempted to quantify the incremental revenues to TSMC if A5 processor orders are shifted from Samsung.
We assume a die size of 60mm2 for the dual-core A5 on 40/45-nm and estimate that approximately 1,035 units can fit on a 300-mm wafer. Assuming an 85 percent in 2011 and 90 percent yield in 2012 (as the process node matures), we expect net die per wafer to be around 880 and 932 in 2011 and 2012 respectively, the analyst said.
We estimate total Apple iPhone/iPad shipments of 130 million units this year, with 90 million units fitted with the newer A5 processor. We expect the A5 to be integrated into iPhone soon, so by 2012 we forecast the A5 opportunity to increase by > 150 percent to 230 million, he said.
Assuming TSMC gets 30 percent of Apple's orders this year (with Samsung the remaining 70 percent) at an average wafer ASP of $4,000, the incremental revenues are only around 0.8 percent of its 2011 consensus revenues numbers. In 2012, the contribution should rise to 2.5 percent assuming it gets 60 percent of the A5 orders at a lower ASP of $3,000, he added.
Analyst: TSMC to take 'bite of apple'
Mark LaPedus
Silicon foundry giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) is taking a bigger bite of the apple, according to an analyst.
Rumblings about Apple's decision to shift A5 processor orders to TSMC from Samsung have gathered steam, said Steven Pelayo, an analyst with HSBC, in a new report. While unconfirmed, we believe cooperation is inevitable considering TSMC's capacity and technological advantages, as well as a lack of potential interest conflicts.
If TSMC did indeed receive the business from Apple, the results show minimal incremental revenue contribution (for TSMC) of approximately 1 percent (and) 2.5 percent of 2011 (and) 2012 consensus numbers, respectively, he said.
In prior reports, we noted TSMC was less exposed to 'Round 1' of the tablet wars as Samsung captured much of Apple's silicon opportunity. We always expected TSMC to benefit more in 'Round 2' with non-iPad products, but now it appears the company is potentially poised to take a 'bigger bite of the apple,' he said.
In the report, HSBC attempted to quantify the incremental revenues to TSMC if A5 processor orders are shifted from Samsung.
We assume a die size of 60mm2 for the dual-core A5 on 40/45-nm and estimate that approximately 1,035 units can fit on a 300-mm wafer. Assuming an 85 percent in 2011 and 90 percent yield in 2012 (as the process node matures), we expect net die per wafer to be around 880 and 932 in 2011 and 2012 respectively, the analyst said.
We estimate total Apple iPhone/iPad shipments of 130 million units this year, with 90 million units fitted with the newer A5 processor. We expect the A5 to be integrated into iPhone soon, so by 2012 we forecast the A5 opportunity to increase by > 150 percent to 230 million, he said.
Assuming TSMC gets 30 percent of Apple's orders this year (with Samsung the remaining 70 percent) at an average wafer ASP of $4,000, the incremental revenues are only around 0.8 percent of its 2011 consensus revenues numbers. In 2012, the contribution should rise to 2.5 percent assuming it gets 60 percent of the A5 orders at a lower ASP of $3,000, he added.